A small dip in USDZAR, French Industrial Production climbs slightly

As of 10:18am, the Rand made a small dip to the 9.95 area, touching its first target from a 4 hourly trade, entry 10.0054. It swiftly turned around with USD power and currently sits at 10.0212.

2013-07-10 12-14-34 PM

 

Its still in a down trend on the daily but we could see some movement towards the green resistance levels if a pass of the 10.04 happens.

CALENDAR:

Bonjour!  French Indust. Product came in at a slight positive of -0.4, market expected -0.5

2013-07-10 12-23-49 PM

 

Red vertical line shows French data release.

US Wholesale and Crude Oil Inventories still to arrive this afternoon.

USD/ZAR afternoon update

Straight out of the gates today at 7am the Rand saw a break of daily support of 10.0591 showing some possible ZAR strength.

2013-07-09 02-16-52 PM

Visible on the hourly, the USD/ZAR took the drop rather rapid and confidently. It’s trip lasted till lunch time though. By 2:30pm this afternoon on the 4HR it appears to have met all its targets and support has been introduced.

2013-07-09 02-19-51 PM

 

The 4 hourly entry was at 10.14 with T1 @ 10.1249, T2 @ 10.08 and T3 10.0321. All predicted targets met. On the daily average, its reached its’ movement and anything further would be a surprise.

No further 4HR trades seem visible other than a small setup around 10.18 so most likely a new setup will appear before any further USD strength.

CALENDAR:

Only the sterling showed some heavy weight data being Manufacturing Production m/m. Prev. were -0.2%, Market forecasts were 0.3% and actual came in at -0.8%.

This afternoon saw US data for NFIB Small Business Index Prev. 94,4 Expected 96.2 and Actual 93.5

Tomorrow sees (all time in UTC – adjust for your timezone):

645am UTC French Industrial in the morning, prepare your bread rolls for an Expected -0.5% Prev. 2.2%

2pm UTC USD Wholesale Inventories m/m Expected 0.3% and Prev. 0.2%

4pm UTC Followed by the black gold,  USD Crude Oil Inventories, Prev. -10,3M Expected -2.9M

Till tomorrow!

 

The deadly game of being an FX Trader

It’s a little dated as it came out some months back but this was part of a DowJones campaign for their FX trading website service. It only survived two episodes though which we think was just way to short.

USD/ZAR Weekly Forecast Update

We thought we’d get right in and look at the USD/ZAR pair and give a quick note on how it’s currently acting after its massive movement since the beginning of May. If you had gone long on USD/ZAR from the beginning of May you would’ve been sitting pretty for the August mass evacuation of trading desks.

Opening at 8.9829, the pair shot up to end the month of May at 10.0755. Below illustrates this WTF moment.

2013-07-08 08-33-30 PM

 

If we look at the volatility levels, the pair has roughly lost 50% of its’ force over the past two months, our Average True Range showing around 12 cents of movement a day compared to 23 cents mid-June. There is a large resistance around the 10.30 levels with the weekly showing a real close try at the 10.3165 long trigger in waiting, giving a potential injection for further Rand weakness. On the daily, it intercepted a long @ 10.0808 followed by an exit today at breakeven after touching T1 (target 1) at 10.2759. The current bid being 10.1656.

USD/ZAR support currently visible at 10.05. Regular readers of Rand Report would know how we are Rand negative till aliens from outer space arrive and make Johannesburg world headquarters but for now:

TRENDS:

Weekly UP

Daily NEUTRAL

With Nelson Mandela (the previous South African president) in hospital due to bad health and old age, we think the markets are waiting to see what happens. It will certainly be interesting to follow the currency events that follow when any news arrives regarding his final status. This would be a psychological trade as the economics already speak for themselves. In 1994 when the ANC government took over, the Rand was at the 3.60 levels a USD… surprised we haven’t read books yet titled “The Greatest Trade Ever:  USD/ZAR”. Perhaps it’s still in play?

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